Communicator Archives: November 2001

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What the Board Needs to Know about Growth and Earnings

Our culture tends to equate growth with increased earnings and on many levels it does. However, in the banking industry, nothing is a simple as it seems and growth can actually do more harm than good if not managed effectively.

Growth can mean managing additional resources, new lines of business, new technology and information systems. This can be costly and strain current resources. Senior management and Directors need to analyze the effect of current or proposed growth on the bank's asset quality, earnings, liquidity and risk exposure.

Growth in the balance sheet is typically stated as a year-to-year change in account balance expressed as a percentage. Historical patterns of growth can be identified in key areas such as loans, securities, assets, volatile liabilities, core deposits and borrowings. Peer analysis is helpful in determining if a bank's growth is in line with banks of similar size. A/L Benchmarks offers an additional measurement of balanced growth- Growth Rate Balance Measure. This measurement is the difference between the highest and the lowest of growth rates in the following four categories: loans, assets, deposits and equity. The smaller the measure, the more balanced the growth.

Warning signs in growth:

  • Growth not consistent with budget.
  • Growth that is not accompanied by increases in management controls.
  • Growth that is significantly higher/lower than peer.
  • Increased reliance on short term funding.
  • Increases in the risk profile of the bank.
  • New products or services in which the bank has no expertise and carries unfamiliar risk.
  • Increases in the trend and magnitude of the Growth Rate Balanced Measure.

As we stated earlier, growth should result in increased earnings. A bank with good earnings can remain competitive and reward its shareholders through dividends. Senior management and directors need to be aware of the level, trend and quality of earnings.

Increased earnings may carry with it increased credit risk, forcing a bank not only to increase its level of reserves but perhaps cover even larger charge-offs. Increased earnings may perhaps be from a one-time event such as an extraordinary gain on securities, a favorable tax position or a non-interest income item. Ultimately, a bank's objective is to maximize returns while minimizing risk.

Earnings are typically measured by the following ratios:

  • Return on Assets (ROA) - measures how effectively the banks assets generate earnings.
  • Return on Equity (ROE) - measures the rate of return on shareholders investment.
  • Net Interest Margin - Difference between interest earned and interest paid as a percentage average earning assets.
  • Non-Interest Income to Non-Interest Expenses - measures a bank's bottom line reliance on sources other that interest bearing assets.
  • Operating Efficiency Ratio - Non-interest expenses divided by bank revenue. The smaller the number, the more "efficient" the bank's operations.

Warnings signs in earnings:

  • Large increases or decreases in non-interest income.
  • Large variances from budget.
  • Significant changes in ROA, ROE from prior periods and large variances from peers.
  • Personnel expenses significantly higher or lower than peer.

The ultimate balancing act in the banking industry is maximizing profits while minimizing the risk associated with doing business.

Regulatory Focus

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ICBA Weekly News November 21, 2001

"Higher Ceiling Considered for Bank Deposit Coverage"
Chicago Tribune (11/15/01) P. 1; Allison, Melissa

Since Superior Bank of Chicago went under, changes in deposit insurance regulations have been proposed by Washington lawmakers. The primary means of reform being investigated is raising the $100,000 limit for insured deposits by inflation adjustment or by a specific amount, but non-bank mutual funds and investment firms are hoping the current limits remain in tack. Currently, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Reserve Board are divided over the issue of limit increases. In a recent appearance before a House subcommittee, FDIC Chairman Donald Powell spoke in favor of raising deposit insurance. In October, he told the subcommittee that the $100,000 limit should be increased every five years corresponding to inflation beginning in 2005, though retirement accounts should be increased immediately. The banking industry agrees with Powell, and some are pushing for higher limits for regular accounts before 2005. Presently, most banks are not paying insurance fund premiums, as the funds are adequate. However, if the limit on all accounts are raised, then all banks may have to begin paying premiums. The Federal Reserve says few depositors demand a limit increase, which has led Fed Gov. Laurence Meyer to believe that depositors are able to get adequate coverage through numerous accounts. Although it could take up to 10 years for the government to distribute money from the sale of a failed institution's assets, former customers often receive some of their non-insured deposits--about 65 cents for every dollar, according to the FDIC.

Benchmark Briefs

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One of the primary data sources for A/L Benchmarks is the bank's call report of FRY-9. Thus it is imperative that we are aware of any changes to the call report, either in the most recent or prior quarters. Please contact Susan Regan at 888-657-6680 if your bank has made any such changes AFTER sending your call report to ORA.
Ask the Expert by Dr. Ronald L. Olson, Chairman ORA

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Q. In the current falling rate environment, many of my securities are being called. Where do they fall for GAP reporting purposes, by maturity date or call date?

A. The A/L Benchmarks model has the ability to "call" securities during a shock analysis when provided with an investment download of your securities. A/L Benchmarks also has the intelligence to "call whenever appropriate" for GAP reporting purposes. Example: You are holding a fixed rate callable security currently yielding 8%. We are certain that in light of current market rates, this will be called and will be slotted for GAP reporting purposed under call date. Another security in the portfolio might be at current market rates and the likelihood of call is less clear. That security would be slotted at original maturity date. The bottom line is that none of us has a crystal ball. However, we can make rational assumptions based on the current market.
Welcome Aboard

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The staff of Olson Research is pleased to welcome these institutions aboard:
 Central State Bank 
Beulah, MI
 The State Bank 
Fenton, MI
 Antwerp Exchange Bank 
Antwerp, OH
 Signature Bank 
Bad Axe, MI
 
Our best referrals come from clients like you.
Who do you know professionally that could benefit from A/L Benchmarks®? Please contact us: info@olsonresearch.com
or (888) 657-6680

The staff of Olson Research extends their deepest sympathies to the families and friends of the victims of the September 11th terrorist attacks.